Potential Financial Summit Already Lurching

President Bush recently met with French President Nicolas Sarkozy and European Union President Jose Manuel Barroso.

They discussed a potential summit to address the financial crises spreading throughout the world.

As I predicted, the U.S. is already refusing to commit to any significant action on the international level.

First, no date has been set for this summit.

But this could just be because of the looming revamping of the U.S. government. No matter which presidential candidate wins the upcoming election, they will need time to prepare for such a meeting.

Secondly and more telling, Bush is arguing that no action should be taken that hampers the 'the commitment to free enterprise, free markets and free trade.”

I think it can be argued that the markets have been too free lately. Allowing large scale speculation in land, housing, commodities, and oil has led to disastrous consequences that are just now playing out.

The rest of the world is not amused with Bush's lack of leadership on this issue.

France's Sarkozy views U.S. participation in an international scheme as necessary.

"Since the crisis started in New York, maybe we can find the solution in New York," he said. "This is a worldwide crisis, and therefore we must find a worldwide solution."

What does this mean to the readers?

I think the media will focus lots of attention on this proposed summit.

Some type of joint statement of purpose will come out of the summit.

The statement will be generic, with not a lot of details on any real action. No participant will be required to do anything specific, but each will pledge to be more vigilant on policing unregulated behavior that could lead to another financial crises.

Readers should expect no real legislative action on any proposals that come from such a summit.

Instead, readers may see executive orders requiring regulatory agencies to consider the statements expressed from the summit.

That's my cynical take on how this summit is shaping up.

Of course, results from the upcoming U.S. presidential election may make it necessary to revisit this prediction.

Germany Supports Financial Summit

Germany has announced support for a summit to create an international regulatory scheme to prevent future worldwide credit crises.

Such a summit was proposed by France back in September.

As predicted, it looks like the summit will happen.

Will a new regulatory scheme come out of the summit?

Well, you know my thoughts on the matter.

International Credit Check

The CSM has a great article about international coordination and cooperation between industrial countries towards the credit crisis.

You can read the article here.

Still, this increased cooperation is not a regulation of the international flow of capital. For that, I still see soft law as the best hope for future international law.

Can the U.S. Bail Fast Enough? Rising Tide of Worldwide Resentment

The BBC has two great collections of quotes from world opinions regarding the U.S. House of Representatives failure to pass a bailout package for the financial markets.

They can be read here and here.

My personal favorite comes from Business Daily in South Africa:

"Even with (a US bail-out plan), the world will be a tense place for a good while yet, especially if nothing is done to tackle the underlying causes of the credit crunch.

And what the demise of European banks has highlighted is that the solutions will have to cross borders rather than involve the US alone. Financial markets and those who play in them will have to be subjected to more and better regulation.

And regulators from different countries will have to work together in ways they haven't until now. But all this is not going to come together quickly, so the road ahead will be rocky. "

I think this quote reflects a growing realization that cross-border capital trading will have to be regulated on an international level.

The question is, 'Can a real framework for international financial regulation exist if the U.S. refuses to participate?"

I think so, but it will have to come about through soft law provisions.
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www.joshualenon.com

Can Soft Law Lead to Hard Financial Regulations?

President Nicolas Sarkozy of France called for a summit meeting to develop greater international regulations of financial markets at the recent opening of the United Nations General Assembly. This was done in response to financial turmoil in the United States stock & credit markets that has affected the global economy.

Will there actually be a summit?

Probably.

Will the summit achieve any lasting international regulation?

Not a snowball's chance in the heart of the sun.

What are the issues?

Can comprehensive international regulation of the financial market exist? Yes, but history teaches us that it will be ineffective without universal participation.

International law works on states - in part - because they choose to be bound by international law.

A nation that refuses to sign a treaty is not bound by that treaty.

And the United States has refused to sign a lot of multilateral treaties. We've also failed to ratify even more.

With the U.S. holding regulatory control over the NYSE and its affiliated indexes, not having the U.S. as a signor is likely to have very little effect in the short term.

What is the controlling international law?

Stock exchanges tend to be regulated in two fashions, domestic regulation and domestic regulation that applies to corporations.

But stock exchanges also impose their own regulations on their listed members - even though the stock exchange is a private corporation.

What this means, is that stock exchanges help create a body of practice - given legal effect - even though the stock exchanges have no legislative abilities.

They cannot create real laws that are legally binding in a court. But they can create practices through contracts with their members that are so widespread they might as well be law.

In the practice of international law, these widespread types of self-regulation are called Soft Law.

Soft law is a controversial concept. Some legal scholars argue that soft law does not even exist. Many cite that lack of binding commitment or enforcement mechanisms mean that soft law cannot exist, except as a theory.

However, when state actors fail to take action, sometimes all we are left with is soft law.

It has been seen in areas relating to such as human rights law and environmental law that soft law can make a difference in the actions of non-state actors.

An example of soft law would be the Fair Trade Coffee initiative. There are few laws governing the purchase of coffee. The Fair Trade Coffee initiative has set standards followed by individuals and multinational corporations alike.

Soft law has the potential to affect the world.

What does this mean to the reader?

If the U.S. plays to type and refuses to sign any multilateral treaty with new obligations and financial regulations, soft law may the world's only method for creating new regulations and preventing future financial meltdowns.

Chances are pretty good that the U.S. will not sign such a treaty. Our track record says we will refuse.

So, it will be up to the stock exchanges and the countries regulating their own stock exchanges to impose regulations that might save the U.S. financial sector in the future.

Oddly, this may work through a survival-of-the-fittest model among companies.

For example, say the Toronto Stock Exchange required new types of reporting from its listed members. Companies that met this reporting standard would be considered a better investment. Their transparency would reduce the risks associated with the stock.

Those companies that are considered better would raise more capital, and potentially acquire companies that do not meet the new reporting standards.

To survive, companies would have to meet the new reporting standard or risk being acquired or driven out of business.

In this age of international business competition, even companies not listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange would have to compete with these new reporting requirements - even though they are not required.

Non-binding regulations, that affect actors around the world, that's soft law.

And it may be the only way to regulate future financial stability.
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www.joshualenon.com